Dynamic Herb Cebu 4–0 Loyola: Result & Stats | PFL

Dynamic Herb Cebu

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Loyola

4/6/2024

PFL · Round 1Dynamic Herb-Borromeo Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Dynamic Herb Cebu74%

×Draw14%

Loyola11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dynamic Herb CebuExpected goals in this matchLoyola

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.96

1.11

Dynamic Herb Cebu

2.96

Loyola

1.11

Dynamic Herb Cebu creates 167% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 16 away

3.11

creates per match

1.38

0.84

allows per match

2.81

creates per match

Dynamic Herb Cebu

3.11

Loyola

1.38

allows per match

Dynamic Herb Cebu

0.84

Loyola

2.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dynamic Herb Cebu+0.00on par

Loyola+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamic Herb Cebu ↓

Loyola →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

57%43%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Dynamic Herb Cebu or draw

89%

Dynamic Herb Cebu or Loyola

86%

Draw or Loyola

26%

Winning margin

Dynamic Herb Cebu wins by 2+

54%

Loyola wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Dynamic Herb Cebu 1+ goals

95%

Dynamic Herb Cebu 2+ goals

79%

Dynamic Herb Cebu 3+ goals

55%

Loyola 1+ goals

67%

Loyola 2+ goals

30%

Loyola 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Dynamic Herb Cebu (draw refunded)

87%

Loyola (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamic Herb Cebu at home — creates 3.11, concedes 0.84 · 44 matches

Loyola away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.81 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamic Herb Cebu attack 3.11 + Loyola defence 2.81 → ÷2 → 2.96

Loyola attack 1.38 + Dynamic Herb Cebu defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Dynamic Herb Cebu scores more

74%

level

14%

Loyola scores more

11%

Dynamic Herb Cebu at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Dynamic Herb Cebu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff