Lourdes 1–0 Bidezarra: Result & Stats

Lourdes

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bidezarra

4/1/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 22Estadio Luis Asarta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Lourdes40%

×Draw27%

Bidezarra33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LourdesExpected goals in this matchBidezarra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.19

Lourdes

1.32

Bidezarra

1.19

Lourdes creates 11% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 66 away

1.25

creates per match

1.09

1.29

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Lourdes

1.25

Bidezarra

1.09

allows per match

Lourdes

1.29

Bidezarra

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lourdes+0.00on par

Bidezarra+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lourdes ↓

Bidezarra →

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Lourdes or draw

67%

Lourdes or Bidezarra

73%

Draw or Bidezarra

60%

Winning margin

Lourdes wins by 2+

18%

Bidezarra wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Lourdes 1+ goals

73%

Lourdes 2+ goals

38%

Lourdes 3+ goals

15%

Bidezarra 1+ goals

70%

Bidezarra 2+ goals

33%

Bidezarra 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Lourdes (draw refunded)

54%

Bidezarra (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Lourdes at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.29 · 28 matches

Bidezarra away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.39 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Lourdes attack 1.25 + Bidezarra defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.32

Bidezarra attack 1.09 + Lourdes defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Lourdes scores more

40%

level

27%

Bidezarra scores more

33%

Lourdes at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Lourdes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff