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Bidezarra vs Lourdes — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Bidezarra
Bidezarra
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Lourdes
Lourdes
1/3/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 11Campo Bidezarra de Noain

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Bidezarra52%
×Draw25%
Lourdes22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bidezarra
1.56
Lourdes
0.92

Bidezarra creates 70% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 29 away

creates per match

Bidezarra
1.20
Lourdes
0.86

allows per match

Bidezarra
0.97
Lourdes
1.93

finishing

Bidezarra+0.00on par
Lourdes+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bidezarra ↓

Lourdes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Bidezarra or draw
78%
Bidezarra or Lourdes
75%
Draw or Lourdes
48%

Winning margin

Bidezarra wins by 2+
27%
Lourdes wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Bidezarra 1+ goals
79%
Bidezarra 2+ goals
46%
Bidezarra 3+ goals
21%
Lourdes 1+ goals
60%
Lourdes 2+ goals
23%
Lourdes 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Bidezarra (draw refunded)
70%
Lourdes (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bidezarra at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.97 · 66 matches

Lourdes away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.93 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bidezarra attack 1.20 + Lourdes defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.56

Lourdes attack 0.86 + Bidezarra defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Bidezarra scores more
52%
level
25%
Lourdes scores more
22%

Bidezarra at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Bidezarra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bidezarra vs Lourdes

Lourdes beat Bidezarra 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on January 3, 2021.

The match was played at Campo Bidezarra de Noain in Noain.