Louisville City 0–1 Tulsa Roughnecks

Louisville City

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Tulsa Roughnecks

9/3/2021

USL Championship · Round 32Lynn Family Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 130+ matches

Louisville City57%

×Draw22%

Tulsa Roughnecks21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Louisville CityExpected goals in this matchTulsa Roughnecks

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.97

1.12

Louisville City

1.97

Tulsa Roughnecks

1.12

Louisville City creates 76% more chances

Season form · 151 home / 130 away

2.13

creates per match

1.19

1.05

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Louisville City

2.13

Tulsa Roughnecks

1.19

allows per match

Louisville City

1.05

Tulsa Roughnecks

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Louisville City+0.00on par

Tulsa Roughnecks+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Louisville City ↓

Tulsa Roughnecks →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Louisville City or draw

79%

Louisville City or Tulsa Roughnecks

78%

Draw or Tulsa Roughnecks

43%

Winning margin

Louisville City wins by 2+

34%

Tulsa Roughnecks wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Louisville City 1+ goals

86%

Louisville City 2+ goals

58%

Louisville City 3+ goals

31%

Tulsa Roughnecks 1+ goals

67%

Tulsa Roughnecks 2+ goals

31%

Tulsa Roughnecks 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Louisville City (draw refunded)

73%

Tulsa Roughnecks (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Louisville City at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.05 · 151 matches

Tulsa Roughnecks away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.81 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Louisville City attack 2.13 + Tulsa Roughnecks defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.97

Tulsa Roughnecks attack 1.19 + Louisville City defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Louisville City scores more

57%

level

22%

Tulsa Roughnecks scores more

21%

Louisville City at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Louisville City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff