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Louisiana Krewe vs Baton Rouge LA — USL League Two 2018

Louisiana Krewe
Louisiana Krewe
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Baton Rouge LA
Baton Rouge LA
7/9/2023USL League TwoUSL League Two · Southern Conference - 17Rajin' Cajun Soccer/Track & Field Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Louisiana Krewe67%
×Draw16%
Baton Rouge LA16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Louisiana Krewe
2.91
Baton Rouge LA
1.41

Louisiana Krewe creates 106% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 13 away

creates per match

Louisiana Krewe
2.19
Baton Rouge LA
1.46

allows per match

Louisiana Krewe
1.35
Baton Rouge LA
3.62

finishing

Louisiana Krewe+0.00on par
Baton Rouge LA+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Louisiana Krewe ↓

Baton Rouge LA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Louisiana Krewe or draw
84%
Louisiana Krewe or Baton Rouge LA
84%
Draw or Baton Rouge LA
33%

Winning margin

Louisiana Krewe wins by 2+
47%
Baton Rouge LA wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Louisiana Krewe 1+ goals
94%
Louisiana Krewe 2+ goals
78%
Louisiana Krewe 3+ goals
54%
Baton Rouge LA 1+ goals
76%
Baton Rouge LA 2+ goals
41%
Baton Rouge LA 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Louisiana Krewe (draw refunded)
80%
Baton Rouge LA (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Louisiana Krewe at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.35 · 31 matches

Baton Rouge LA away — creates 1.46, concedes 3.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Louisiana Krewe attack 2.19 + Baton Rouge LA defence 3.62 → ÷2 → 2.91

Baton Rouge LA attack 1.46 + Louisiana Krewe defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Louisiana Krewe scores more
67%
level
16%
Baton Rouge LA scores more
16%

Louisiana Krewe at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Louisiana Krewe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Louisiana Krewe 2–1 Baton Rouge LA

Louisiana Krewe beat Baton Rouge LA 2-1 in USL League Two on July 9, 2023.

The match was played at Rajin' Cajun Soccer/Track & Field Stadium in Los Angeles.