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Baton Rouge LA vs Louisiana Krewe — USL League Two 2018

Baton Rouge LA
Baton Rouge LA
FT
0 – 0
Louisiana Krewe
Louisiana Krewe
6/9/2023USL League TwoUSL League Two · Southern Conference - 16LSU Soccer Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Baton Rouge LA15%
×Draw15%
Louisiana Krewe70%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baton Rouge LA
1.35
Louisiana Krewe
3.02

Louisiana Krewe creates 124% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 33 away

creates per match

Baton Rouge LA
1.00
Louisiana Krewe
2.18

allows per match

Baton Rouge LA
3.85
Louisiana Krewe
1.70

finishing

Baton Rouge LA+0.00on par
Louisiana Krewe+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baton Rouge LA ↓

Louisiana Krewe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–26%
0–36%
0–45%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–25%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Baton Rouge LA or draw
30%
Baton Rouge LA or Louisiana Krewe
85%
Draw or Louisiana Krewe
85%

Winning margin

Baton Rouge LA wins by 2+
6%
Louisiana Krewe wins by 2+
50%

Team goals

Baton Rouge LA 1+ goals
74%
Baton Rouge LA 2+ goals
39%
Baton Rouge LA 3+ goals
15%
Louisiana Krewe 1+ goals
95%
Louisiana Krewe 2+ goals
80%
Louisiana Krewe 3+ goals
57%

Draw no bet

Baton Rouge LA (draw refunded)
17%
Louisiana Krewe (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baton Rouge LA at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.85 · 13 matches

Louisiana Krewe away — creates 2.18, concedes 1.70 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baton Rouge LA attack 1.00 + Louisiana Krewe defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.35

Louisiana Krewe attack 2.18 + Baton Rouge LA defence 3.85 → ÷2 → 3.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Baton Rouge LA scores more
15%
level
15%
Louisiana Krewe scores more
70%

Louisiana Krewe at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Louisiana Krewe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Baton Rouge LA 0–0 Louisiana Krewe

Baton Rouge LA and Louisiana Krewe drew 0-0 in USL League Two on June 9, 2023.

The match was played at LSU Soccer Stadium in Baton Rouge, Louisiana.