Loughgall 1–2 H&W Welders: Result & Stats

Loughgall

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

H&W Welders

Unknown 30'

B. Healy 34'

E. Devine 15'

9/13/2025

League #407 · Round 6Lakeview Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Loughgall37%

×Draw22%

H&W Welders41%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LoughgallExpected goals in this matchH&W Welders

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.80

Loughgall

1.71

H&W Welders

1.80

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 21 away

1.80

creates per match

2.10

1.50

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Loughgall

1.80

H&W Welders

2.10

allows per match

Loughgall

1.50

H&W Welders

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Loughgall+0.00on par

H&W Welders+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Loughgall ↓

H&W Welders →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Loughgall or draw

59%

Loughgall or H&W Welders

78%

Draw or H&W Welders

63%

Winning margin

Loughgall wins by 2+

19%

H&W Welders wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Loughgall 1+ goals

82%

Loughgall 2+ goals

51%

Loughgall 3+ goals

24%

H&W Welders 1+ goals

83%

H&W Welders 2+ goals

54%

H&W Welders 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Loughgall (draw refunded)

48%

H&W Welders (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Loughgall at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

H&W Welders away — creates 2.10, concedes 1.62 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Loughgall attack 1.80 + H&W Welders defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.71

H&W Welders attack 2.10 + Loughgall defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Loughgall scores more

37%

level

22%

H&W Welders scores more

41%

H&W Welders at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "H&W Welders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

E. Devine

30'

34'

B. Healy

Loughgall

H&W

Manager: D. Murphy

Manager: P. Kee