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H&W Welders vs Loughgall — League #407 2026

H&W Welders
H&W Welders
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Loughgall
Loughgall
1/24/2026League #407League #407 · Round 26Blanchflower Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

H&W Welders48%
×Draw23%
Loughgall29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

H&W Welders
1.79
Loughgall
1.35

H&W Welders creates 33% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 11 away

creates per match

H&W Welders
2.50
Loughgall
1.36

allows per match

H&W Welders
1.33
Loughgall
1.09

finishing

H&W Welders+0.00on par
Loughgall+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

H&W Welders ↓

Loughgall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

H&W Welders or draw
71%
H&W Welders or Loughgall
77%
Draw or Loughgall
52%

Winning margin

H&W Welders wins by 2+
26%
Loughgall wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

H&W Welders 1+ goals
83%
H&W Welders 2+ goals
53%
H&W Welders 3+ goals
26%
Loughgall 1+ goals
74%
Loughgall 2+ goals
39%
Loughgall 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

H&W Welders (draw refunded)
62%
Loughgall (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

H&W Welders at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.33 · 18 matches

Loughgall away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

H&W Welders attack 2.50 + Loughgall defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.79

Loughgall attack 1.36 + H&W Welders defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

H&W Welders scores more
48%
level
23%
Loughgall scores more
29%

H&W Welders at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "H&W Welders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: H&W Welders vs Loughgall

H&W Welders beat Loughgall 2-1 in League #407 on January 24, 2026.

The match was played at Blanchflower Stadium in Belfast.