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Loughgall vs Annagh United — League #407 2026

Loughgall
Loughgall
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Annagh United
Annagh United
1/17/2026League #407League #407

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Loughgall43%
×Draw27%
Annagh United31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Loughgall
1.40
Annagh United
1.14

Loughgall creates 23% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 18 away

creates per match

Loughgall
1.63
Annagh United
1.28

allows per match

Loughgall
1.00
Annagh United
1.17

finishing

Loughgall+0.00on par
Annagh United+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Loughgall ↓

Annagh United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Loughgall or draw
69%
Loughgall or Annagh United
73%
Draw or Annagh United
57%

Winning margin

Loughgall wins by 2+
20%
Annagh United wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Loughgall 1+ goals
75%
Loughgall 2+ goals
41%
Loughgall 3+ goals
17%
Annagh United 1+ goals
68%
Annagh United 2+ goals
32%
Annagh United 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Loughgall (draw refunded)
58%
Annagh United (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Loughgall at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Annagh United away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.17 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Loughgall attack 1.63 + Annagh United defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.40

Annagh United attack 1.28 + Loughgall defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Loughgall scores more
43%
level
27%
Annagh United scores more
31%

Loughgall at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Loughgall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #407: Loughgall 3–0 Annagh United

Loughgall beat Annagh United 3-0 in League #407 on January 17, 2026.