Annagh United 1–1 Loughgall: Result & Stats

Annagh United

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Loughgall

4/4/2026

League #407

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Annagh United45%

×Draw25%

Loughgall30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Annagh UnitedExpected goals in this matchLoughgall

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.23

Annagh United

1.57

Loughgall

1.23

Annagh United creates 28% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 8 away

1.89

creates per match

1.25

1.21

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Annagh United

1.89

Loughgall

1.25

allows per match

Annagh United

1.21

Loughgall

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Annagh United+0.00on par

Loughgall+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Annagh United ↓

Loughgall →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Annagh United or draw

70%

Annagh United or Loughgall

75%

Draw or Loughgall

55%

Winning margin

Annagh United wins by 2+

23%

Loughgall wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Annagh United 1+ goals

79%

Annagh United 2+ goals

46%

Annagh United 3+ goals

21%

Loughgall 1+ goals

71%

Loughgall 2+ goals

35%

Loughgall 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Annagh United (draw refunded)

60%

Loughgall (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Annagh United at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Loughgall away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Annagh United attack 1.89 + Loughgall defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.57

Loughgall attack 1.25 + Annagh United defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Annagh United scores more

45%

level

25%

Loughgall scores more

30%

Annagh United at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Annagh United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff