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Loto Popo vs Dynamo Unacob — Championnat National 2019

Loto Popo
Loto Popo
FT
4 – 0
Dynamo Unacob
Dynamo Unacob
3/9/2025Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Group A - 21Stade Omnisports de Grand-Popo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Loto Popo54%
×Draw27%
Dynamo Unacob19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Loto Popo
1.44
Dynamo Unacob
0.72

Loto Popo creates 100% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 87 away

creates per match

Loto Popo
1.36
Dynamo Unacob
0.82

allows per match

Loto Popo
0.63
Dynamo Unacob
1.52

finishing

Loto Popo+0.00on par
Dynamo Unacob+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Loto Popo ↓

Dynamo Unacob →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Loto Popo or draw
81%
Loto Popo or Dynamo Unacob
73%
Draw or Dynamo Unacob
46%

Winning margin

Loto Popo wins by 2+
27%
Dynamo Unacob wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Loto Popo 1+ goals
76%
Loto Popo 2+ goals
42%
Loto Popo 3+ goals
18%
Dynamo Unacob 1+ goals
51%
Dynamo Unacob 2+ goals
16%
Dynamo Unacob 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Loto Popo (draw refunded)
74%
Dynamo Unacob (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Loto Popo at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.63 · 95 matches

Dynamo Unacob away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.52 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Loto Popo attack 1.36 + Dynamo Unacob defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.44

Dynamo Unacob attack 0.82 + Loto Popo defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Loto Popo scores more
54%
level
27%
Dynamo Unacob scores more
19%

Loto Popo at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Loto Popo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Loto Popo vs Dynamo Unacob

Loto Popo beat Dynamo Unacob 4-0 in Championnat National on March 9, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Omnisports de Grand-Popo in Grand Popo.