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Dynamo Unacob vs Loto Popo — Championnat National 2019

Dynamo Unacob
Dynamo Unacob
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Loto Popo
Loto Popo
10/20/2024Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Group A - 4Stade Municipal de Parakou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Dynamo Unacob32%
×Draw33%
Loto Popo35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamo Unacob
0.85
Loto Popo
0.90

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 93 away

creates per match

Dynamo Unacob
0.92
Loto Popo
0.99

allows per match

Dynamo Unacob
0.81
Loto Popo
0.78

finishing

Dynamo Unacob+0.00on par
Loto Popo+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Unacob ↓

Loto Popo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–116%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
52%48%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Dynamo Unacob or draw
65%
Dynamo Unacob or Loto Popo
67%
Draw or Loto Popo
68%

Winning margin

Dynamo Unacob wins by 2+
11%
Loto Popo wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Dynamo Unacob 1+ goals
57%
Dynamo Unacob 2+ goals
21%
Dynamo Unacob 3+ goals
5%
Loto Popo 1+ goals
59%
Loto Popo 2+ goals
23%
Loto Popo 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Unacob (draw refunded)
48%
Loto Popo (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Unacob at home — creates 0.92, concedes 0.81 · 85 matches

Loto Popo away — creates 0.99, concedes 0.78 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Unacob attack 0.92 + Loto Popo defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.85

Loto Popo attack 0.99 + Dynamo Unacob defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Dynamo Unacob scores more
32%
level
33%
Loto Popo scores more
35%

Loto Popo at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Loto Popo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat National: Dynamo Unacob 0–0 Loto Popo

Dynamo Unacob and Loto Popo drew 0-0 in Championnat National on October 20, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Parakou in Parakou.