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Loto Popo vs Coton Sport Ouidah — Championnat National 2019

Loto Popo
Loto Popo
FT
1 – 1
Coton Sport Ouidah
Coton Sport Ouidah
3/24/2024Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Championship Round - 9Stade Omnisports de Grand-Popo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Loto Popo38%
×Draw31%
Coton Sport Ouidah31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Loto Popo
1.04
Coton Sport Ouidah
0.90

Loto Popo creates 16% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 94 away

creates per match

Loto Popo
1.36
Coton Sport Ouidah
1.16

allows per match

Loto Popo
0.63
Coton Sport Ouidah
0.73

finishing

Loto Popo+0.00on par
Coton Sport Ouidah+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Loto Popo ↓

Coton Sport Ouidah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Loto Popo or draw
69%
Loto Popo or Coton Sport Ouidah
69%
Draw or Coton Sport Ouidah
62%

Winning margin

Loto Popo wins by 2+
15%
Coton Sport Ouidah wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Loto Popo 1+ goals
65%
Loto Popo 2+ goals
28%
Loto Popo 3+ goals
9%
Coton Sport Ouidah 1+ goals
59%
Coton Sport Ouidah 2+ goals
23%
Coton Sport Ouidah 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Loto Popo (draw refunded)
55%
Coton Sport Ouidah (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Loto Popo at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.63 · 95 matches

Coton Sport Ouidah away — creates 1.16, concedes 0.73 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Loto Popo attack 1.36 + Coton Sport Ouidah defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.04

Coton Sport Ouidah attack 1.16 + Loto Popo defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Loto Popo scores more
38%
level
31%
Coton Sport Ouidah scores more
31%

Loto Popo at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Loto Popo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Loto Popo vs Coton Sport Ouidah

Loto Popo and Coton Sport Ouidah drew 1-1 in Championnat National on March 24, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Omnisports de Grand-Popo in Grand Popo.