Coton Sport Ouidah 3–1 Loto Popo: Result & Stats

Coton Sport Ouidah

FT

3 – 1

Loto Popo

6/4/2023

Championnat National · Championship Round - 21Stade Muncipal de Ouidah

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Coton Sport Ouidah43%

×Draw32%

Loto Popo26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Coton Sport OuidahExpected goals in this matchLoto Popo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

0.77

Coton Sport Ouidah

1.09

Loto Popo

0.77

Coton Sport Ouidah creates 42% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 93 away

1.40

creates per match

0.99

0.54

allows per match

0.78

creates per match

Coton Sport Ouidah

1.40

Loto Popo

0.99

allows per match

Coton Sport Ouidah

0.54

Loto Popo

0.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Coton Sport Ouidah+0.00on par

Loto Popo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coton Sport Ouidah ↓

Loto Popo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Coton Sport Ouidah or draw

74%

Coton Sport Ouidah or Loto Popo

68%

Draw or Loto Popo

57%

Winning margin

Coton Sport Ouidah wins by 2+

18%

Loto Popo wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Coton Sport Ouidah 1+ goals

66%

Coton Sport Ouidah 2+ goals

30%

Coton Sport Ouidah 3+ goals

10%

Loto Popo 1+ goals

54%

Loto Popo 2+ goals

18%

Loto Popo 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Coton Sport Ouidah (draw refunded)

63%

Loto Popo (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coton Sport Ouidah at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.54 · 92 matches

Loto Popo away — creates 0.99, concedes 0.78 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coton Sport Ouidah attack 1.40 + Loto Popo defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.09

Loto Popo attack 0.99 + Coton Sport Ouidah defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Coton Sport Ouidah scores more

43%

level

32%

Loto Popo scores more

26%

Coton Sport Ouidah at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Coton Sport Ouidah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff