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Loto Popo vs Ayema — Championnat National 2019

Loto Popo
Loto Popo
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ayema
Ayema
5/1/2024Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Championship Round - 14Stade Omnisports de Grand-Popo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Loto Popo43%
×Draw32%
Ayema25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Loto Popo
1.08
Ayema
0.76

Loto Popo creates 42% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 119 away

creates per match

Loto Popo
1.36
Ayema
0.88

allows per match

Loto Popo
0.63
Ayema
0.80

finishing

Loto Popo+0.00on par
Ayema+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Loto Popo ↓

Ayema →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Loto Popo or draw
75%
Loto Popo or Ayema
68%
Draw or Ayema
57%

Winning margin

Loto Popo wins by 2+
17%
Ayema wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Loto Popo 1+ goals
66%
Loto Popo 2+ goals
29%
Loto Popo 3+ goals
10%
Ayema 1+ goals
53%
Ayema 2+ goals
18%
Ayema 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Loto Popo (draw refunded)
63%
Ayema (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Loto Popo at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.63 · 95 matches

Ayema away — creates 0.88, concedes 0.80 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Loto Popo attack 1.36 + Ayema defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.08

Ayema attack 0.88 + Loto Popo defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Loto Popo scores more
43%
level
32%
Ayema scores more
25%

Loto Popo at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Loto Popo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat National: Loto Popo 1–0 Ayema

Loto Popo beat Ayema 1-0 in Championnat National on May 1, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Omnisports de Grand-Popo in Grand Popo.