Ayema 0–1 Loto Popo: Result & Stats

Ayema

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Loto Popo

4/3/2024

Championnat National · Championship Round - 11Stade de Pobè

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Ayema40%

×Draw32%

Loto Popo28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AyemaExpected goals in this matchLoto Popo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

0.80

Ayema

1.02

Loto Popo

0.80

Ayema creates 27% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 93 away

1.27

creates per match

0.99

0.61

allows per match

0.78

creates per match

Ayema

1.27

Loto Popo

0.99

allows per match

Ayema

0.61

Loto Popo

0.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ayema+0.00on par

Loto Popo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ayema ↓

Loto Popo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–113%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Ayema or draw

72%

Ayema or Loto Popo

68%

Draw or Loto Popo

60%

Winning margin

Ayema wins by 2+

16%

Loto Popo wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Ayema 1+ goals

64%

Ayema 2+ goals

27%

Ayema 3+ goals

8%

Loto Popo 1+ goals

55%

Loto Popo 2+ goals

19%

Loto Popo 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Ayema (draw refunded)

59%

Loto Popo (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ayema at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.61 · 119 matches

Loto Popo away — creates 0.99, concedes 0.78 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ayema attack 1.27 + Loto Popo defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.02

Loto Popo attack 0.99 + Ayema defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ayema scores more

40%

level

32%

Loto Popo scores more

28%

Ayema at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ayema will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff