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Lothian Hutchison vs Edinburgh University — FA Cup 2019

Lothian Hutchison
Lothian Hutchison
FT
2 – 2
Edinburgh University
Edinburgh University
9/19/2021FA CupFA Cup · 1st RoundAinslie Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Lothian Hutchison56%
×Draw20%
Edinburgh University25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lothian Hutchison
2.38
Edinburgh University
1.55

Lothian Hutchison creates 54% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Lothian Hutchison
2.00
Edinburgh University
1.50

allows per match

Lothian Hutchison
1.60
Edinburgh University
2.75

finishing

Lothian Hutchison+0.00on par
Edinburgh University+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lothian Hutchison ↓

Edinburgh University →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Lothian Hutchison or draw
75%
Lothian Hutchison or Edinburgh University
80%
Draw or Edinburgh University
44%

Winning margin

Lothian Hutchison wins by 2+
35%
Edinburgh University wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Lothian Hutchison 1+ goals
91%
Lothian Hutchison 2+ goals
68%
Lothian Hutchison 3+ goals
42%
Edinburgh University 1+ goals
79%
Edinburgh University 2+ goals
46%
Edinburgh University 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Lothian Hutchison (draw refunded)
69%
Edinburgh University (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lothian Hutchison at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Edinburgh University away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lothian Hutchison attack 2.00 + Edinburgh University defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.38

Edinburgh University attack 1.50 + Lothian Hutchison defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Lothian Hutchison scores more
56%
level
20%
Edinburgh University scores more
25%

Lothian Hutchison at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Lothian Hutchison will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Lothian Hutchison 2–2 Edinburgh University

Lothian Hutchison and Edinburgh University drew 2-2 in FA Cup on September 19, 2021.

The match was played at Ainslie Park Stadium in Edinburgh.