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Edinburgh University vs Lothian Hutchison — FA Cup 2019

Edinburgh University
Edinburgh University
FT
0 – 3
Lothian Hutchison
Lothian Hutchison
9/25/2021FA CupFA Cup · 1st Round ReplaysEast Peffermill

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Edinburgh University28%
×Draw21%
Lothian Hutchison50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Edinburgh University
1.50
Lothian Hutchison
2.05

Lothian Hutchison creates 37% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 9 away

creates per match

Edinburgh University
1.00
Lothian Hutchison
1.44

allows per match

Edinburgh University
2.67
Lothian Hutchison
2.00

finishing

Edinburgh University+0.00on par
Lothian Hutchison+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Edinburgh University ↓

Lothian Hutchison →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Edinburgh University or draw
50%
Edinburgh University or Lothian Hutchison
79%
Draw or Lothian Hutchison
72%

Winning margin

Edinburgh University wins by 2+
13%
Lothian Hutchison wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Edinburgh University 1+ goals
78%
Edinburgh University 2+ goals
44%
Edinburgh University 3+ goals
19%
Lothian Hutchison 1+ goals
87%
Lothian Hutchison 2+ goals
61%
Lothian Hutchison 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Edinburgh University (draw refunded)
36%
Lothian Hutchison (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Edinburgh University at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

Lothian Hutchison away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Edinburgh University attack 1.00 + Lothian Hutchison defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Lothian Hutchison attack 1.44 + Edinburgh University defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Edinburgh University scores more
28%
level
21%
Lothian Hutchison scores more
50%

Lothian Hutchison at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Lothian Hutchison will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Edinburgh University 0–3 Lothian Hutchison

Lothian Hutchison beat Edinburgh University 3-0 in FA Cup on September 25, 2021.

The match was played at East Peffermill in Edinburgh.