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Los Llanos vs Ibarra — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Los Llanos
Los Llanos
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Ibarra
Ibarra
9/14/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 2Estadio Municipal Aceró

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Los Llanos50%
×Draw26%
Ibarra24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Los Llanos
1.52
Ibarra
0.97

Los Llanos creates 57% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 77 away

creates per match

Los Llanos
1.06
Ibarra
0.88

allows per match

Los Llanos
1.06
Ibarra
1.99

finishing

Los Llanos+0.00on par
Ibarra+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Los Llanos ↓

Ibarra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Los Llanos or draw
76%
Los Llanos or Ibarra
74%
Draw or Ibarra
50%

Winning margin

Los Llanos wins by 2+
25%
Ibarra wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Los Llanos 1+ goals
78%
Los Llanos 2+ goals
45%
Los Llanos 3+ goals
20%
Ibarra 1+ goals
62%
Ibarra 2+ goals
25%
Ibarra 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Los Llanos (draw refunded)
67%
Ibarra (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Los Llanos at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

Ibarra away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.99 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Los Llanos attack 1.06 + Ibarra defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 1.52

Ibarra attack 0.88 + Los Llanos defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Los Llanos scores more
50%
level
26%
Ibarra scores more
24%

Los Llanos at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Los Llanos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Los Llanos vs Ibarra

Los Llanos beat Ibarra 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on September 14, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Aceró in Los Llanos de Aridane.