Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ibarra vs Los Llanos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Ibarra
Ibarra
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Los Llanos
Los Llanos
Unknown 0', 0'
1/25/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 19Estadio Villa Isabel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ibarra55%
×Draw26%
Los Llanos19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ibarra
1.50
Los Llanos
0.77

Ibarra creates 95% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 17 away

creates per match

Ibarra
1.18
Los Llanos
0.41

allows per match

Ibarra
1.14
Los Llanos
1.82

finishing

Ibarra+0.00on par
Los Llanos+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ibarra ↓

Los Llanos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ibarra or draw
81%
Ibarra or Los Llanos
74%
Draw or Los Llanos
45%

Winning margin

Ibarra wins by 2+
28%
Los Llanos wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ibarra 1+ goals
78%
Ibarra 2+ goals
44%
Ibarra 3+ goals
19%
Los Llanos 1+ goals
54%
Los Llanos 2+ goals
18%
Los Llanos 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Ibarra (draw refunded)
74%
Los Llanos (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ibarra at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.14 · 77 matches

Los Llanos away — creates 0.41, concedes 1.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ibarra attack 1.18 + Los Llanos defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.50

Los Llanos attack 0.41 + Ibarra defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Ibarra scores more
55%
level
26%
Los Llanos scores more
19%

Ibarra at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Ibarra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

0'
0'
Ibarra
Los
Tito Martín
Manager: Tito Martín
Daniel Pérez
Manager: Daniel Pérez

Match Recap: Ibarra vs Los Llanos

Ibarra beat Los Llanos 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on January 25, 2025.

Goals: ? (0', 0').

The match was played at Estadio Villa Isabel in Tenerife.