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Los Garres vs La Unión Atlético — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Los Garres
Los Garres
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
La Unión Atlético
La Unión Atlético
4/25/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 2nd Phase - 3Estadio Las Tejeras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Los Garres33%
×Draw29%
La Unión Atlético38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Los Garres
1.06
La Unión Atlético
1.17

La Unión Atlético creates 10% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 45 away

creates per match

Los Garres
1.00
La Unión Atlético
1.11

allows per match

Los Garres
1.23
La Unión Atlético
1.11

finishing

Los Garres+0.00on par
La Unión Atlético+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Los Garres ↓

La Unión Atlético →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Los Garres or draw
62%
Los Garres or La Unión Atlético
71%
Draw or La Unión Atlético
67%

Winning margin

Los Garres wins by 2+
13%
La Unión Atlético wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Los Garres 1+ goals
65%
Los Garres 2+ goals
29%
Los Garres 3+ goals
9%
La Unión Atlético 1+ goals
69%
La Unión Atlético 2+ goals
33%
La Unión Atlético 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Los Garres (draw refunded)
46%
La Unión Atlético (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Los Garres at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.23 · 44 matches

La Unión Atlético away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.11 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Los Garres attack 1.00 + La Unión Atlético defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.06

La Unión Atlético attack 1.11 + Los Garres defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Los Garres scores more
33%
level
29%
La Unión Atlético scores more
38%

La Unión Atlético at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "La Unión Atlético will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'
Rubén← Ayala
61'
Cristian Coll← Toni Vela
61'
Juan Acosta← Harri
61'
Perico← Nono
73'
Jako← Manu Costa
73'
Renato← Chema
83'
M. Ajayi← Diego Sánchez
88'
Alberto← Schuster
Los
La
Hugo Guil
Guil
Ayala
▼
Ayala
Julio Algar
Algar
Cristian Muñoz
Muñoz
Harri
▼
Harri
Sergio Jiménez
Jiménez
Schuster
▼
Schuster
Paco Collados
Collados
Chema
▼
Chema
David Valdeolivas
Valdeoliv
Nono
▼
Nono
Aboubacar Camara
Camara
Álvaro Marín
Marín
José Hernández
Hernández
Rubén Gómez
Gómez
Párraga
Párraga
Toni Vela
▼
Vela
Manu Costa
▼
Costa
Juan
Juan
Álvaro
Álvaro
Pitu
Pitu
Diego Sánchez
▼
Sánchez
C. Correa
Manager: C. Correa
61'▲Cristian Coll←▼Toni Vela
73'▲Jako←▼Manu Costa
83'▲M. Ajayi←▼Diego Sánchez

Los Garres substitutes

CollJakoAjayi
Manuel Palomeque
Manager: Manuel Palomeque
46'▲Rubén←▼Ayala
61'▲Juan Acosta←▼Harri
61'▲Perico←▼Nono
73'▲Renato←▼Chema
88'▲Alberto←▼Schuster

La Unión Atlético substitutes

RubénAcostaPericoRenatoAlberto

Los Garres 0 – 0 La Unión Atlético

Los Garres and La Unión Atlético drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on April 25, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Las Tejeras in Murcia.