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La Unión Atlético vs Los Garres — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

La Unión Atlético
La Unión Atlético
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Los Garres
Los Garres
Juan 90+2'
Álvaro 45+1'
5/16/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 2nd Phase - 6Estadio Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

La Unión Atlético56%
×Draw25%
Los Garres19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

La Unión Atlético
1.58
Los Garres
0.80

La Unión Atlético creates 98% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 44 away

creates per match

La Unión Atlético
1.60
Los Garres
0.98

allows per match

La Unión Atlético
0.62
Los Garres
1.57

finishing

La Unión Atlético+0.00on par
Los Garres+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Unión Atlético ↓

Los Garres →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

La Unión Atlético or draw
81%
La Unión Atlético or Los Garres
75%
Draw or Los Garres
44%

Winning margin

La Unión Atlético wins by 2+
30%
Los Garres wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

La Unión Atlético 1+ goals
79%
La Unión Atlético 2+ goals
47%
La Unión Atlético 3+ goals
21%
Los Garres 1+ goals
55%
Los Garres 2+ goals
19%
Los Garres 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

La Unión Atlético (draw refunded)
75%
Los Garres (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

La Unión Atlético at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.62 · 45 matches

Los Garres away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.57 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

La Unión Atlético attack 1.60 + Los Garres defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.58

Los Garres attack 0.98 + La Unión Atlético defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

La Unión Atlético scores more
56%
level
25%
Los Garres scores more
19%

La Unión Atlético at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "La Unión Atlético will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+1'
Álvaro
63'
Manu Costa← Toni Vela
65'
Rubén← Ketchup
65'
Jose Fernandez← Jako
75'
Chema← Iván Santisteban
87'
Carlos Terol← Diego Sánchez
87'
David Maldonado← Álvaro
90+2'
Juan
La
Los
Aboubacar Camara
Camara
Álvaro Marín
Marín
José Hernández
Hernández
Rubén Gómez
Gómez
Párraga
Párraga
Toni Vela
▼
Vela
Juan
⚽
Juan
Álvaro
⚽
▼
Álvaro
Pitu
Pitu
Diego Sánchez
▼
Sánchez
Jako
▼
Jako
G. Savu
Savu
Iván Santisteban
▼
Santisteb
Julio Algar
Algar
Cristian Muñoz
Muñoz
Harri
Harri
Sergio Jiménez
Jiménez
Ketchup
▼
Ketchup
Alberto
Alberto
Perico
Perico
Renato
Renato
Nono
Nono
Manuel Palomeque
Manager: Manuel Palomeque
65'▲Rubén←▼Ketchup
75'▲Chema←▼Iván Santisteban

La Unión Atlético substitutes

RubénChema
C. Correa
Manager: C. Correa
63'▲Manu Costa←▼Toni Vela
65'▲Jose Fernandez←▼Jako
87'▲Carlos Terol←▼Diego Sánchez
87'▲David Maldonado←▼Álvaro

Los Garres substitutes

CostaFernandezTerolMaldonado

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: La Unión Atlético 0–2 Los Garres

Los Garres beat La Unión Atlético 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on May 16, 2021.

Goals: Álvaro (45+1'), Juan (90+2').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal in La Unión.