Los Garres 3–1 CAP Ciudad de Murcia: Result & Stats

Los Garres

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

A. Fofana 90+1'

M. Sidibé 15'

M. Ajayi 9'

Hamza 89'

9/22/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 5Estadio Las Tejeras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Los Garres40%

×Draw28%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Los GarresExpected goals in this matchCAP Ciudad de Murcia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.04

Los Garres

1.23

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.04

Los Garres creates 18% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 78 away

1.00

creates per match

0.85

1.23

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Los Garres

1.00

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

0.85

allows per match

Los Garres

1.23

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Los Garres+0.00on par

CAP Ciudad de Murcia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Los Garres ↓

CAP Ciudad de Murcia →

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Los Garres or draw

69%

Los Garres or CAP Ciudad de Murcia

72%

Draw or CAP Ciudad de Murcia

60%

Winning margin

Los Garres wins by 2+

18%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Los Garres 1+ goals

71%

Los Garres 2+ goals

35%

Los Garres 3+ goals

13%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 1+ goals

65%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 2+ goals

28%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Los Garres (draw refunded)

57%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Los Garres at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.23 · 44 matches

CAP Ciudad de Murcia away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.45 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Los Garres attack 1.00 + CAP Ciudad de Murcia defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.23

CAP Ciudad de Murcia attack 0.85 + Los Garres defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Los Garres scores more

40%

level

28%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia scores more

31%

Los Garres at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Los Garres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

15'

46'

68'

Sanchez← Moraga

77'

Platas← George

87'

A. Fofana← Párraga

89'

Hamza

90+1'

A. Fofana

Los

CAP

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

Manager: Manu Martinez

68'▲Sanchez←▼Moraga

87'▲A. Fofana←▼Párraga

Los Garres substitutes

SanchezFofana

Manager: Kike Mateo

12'▲Juan Piqueras←▼Santi

46'▲Manuel Peñas←▼Rubén

77'▲Platas←▼George

CAP Ciudad de Murcia substitutes

PiquerasPeñasPlatas

Match Recap: Los Garres vs CAP Ciudad de Murcia

Los Garres beat CAP Ciudad de Murcia 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on September 22, 2019.

Goals: M. Ajayi (9'), M. Sidibé (15'), Hamza (89'), A. Fofana (90+1').

The match was played at Estadio Las Tejeras in Murcia.

Los Garres vs CAP Ciudad de Murcia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Los Garres vs CAP Ciudad de Murcia