CAP Ciudad de Murcia 0–2 Los Garres: Result & Stats

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Los Garres

M. Ajayi 89'

A. Fofana 2'

2/9/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 24Estadio José Barnés

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

CAP Ciudad de Murcia43%

×Draw28%

Los Garres29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CAP Ciudad de MurciaExpected goals in this matchLos Garres

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.01

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.30

Los Garres

1.01

CAP Ciudad de Murcia creates 29% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 44 away

1.03

creates per match

0.98

1.04

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.03

Los Garres

0.98

allows per match

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.04

Los Garres

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CAP Ciudad de Murcia+0.00on par

Los Garres+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CAP Ciudad de Murcia ↓

Los Garres →

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

CAP Ciudad de Murcia or draw

71%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia or Los Garres

72%

Draw or Los Garres

57%

Winning margin

CAP Ciudad de Murcia wins by 2+

20%

Los Garres wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 1+ goals

73%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 2+ goals

37%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 3+ goals

14%

Los Garres 1+ goals

64%

Los Garres 2+ goals

27%

Los Garres 3+ goals

Draw no bet

CAP Ciudad de Murcia (draw refunded)

60%

Los Garres (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

CAP Ciudad de Murcia at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.04 · 78 matches

Los Garres away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.57 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

CAP Ciudad de Murcia attack 1.03 + Los Garres defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.30

Los Garres attack 0.98 + CAP Ciudad de Murcia defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

CAP Ciudad de Murcia scores more

43%

level

28%

Los Garres scores more

29%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "CAP Ciudad de Murcia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

A. Fofana

17'

Eloy← Richard

27'

Párraga← Txiki

46'

Nestor Henarejos← Eloy

54'

Ismail← Jules Chevalier

73'

Zipeng Liu← A. Fofana

89'

M. Ajayi

CAP

Los

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Roberto Lucas

17'▲Eloy←▼Richard

46'▲Nestor Henarejos←▼Eloy

54'▲Ismail←▼Jules Chevalier

CAP Ciudad de Murcia substitutes

EloyHenarejosIsmail

Manager: C. Correa

27'▲Párraga←▼Txiki

73'▲Zipeng Liu←▼A. Fofana

Los Garres substitutes

PárragaLiu

Match Recap: CAP Ciudad de Murcia vs Los Garres

Los Garres beat CAP Ciudad de Murcia 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on February 9, 2020.

Goals: A. Fofana (2'), M. Ajayi (89').

The match was played at Estadio José Barnés in Murcia.

CAP Ciudad de Murcia vs Los Garres — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: CAP Ciudad de Murcia vs Los Garres