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Los Barrios vs Córdoba II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Los Barrios
Los Barrios
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Córdoba II
Córdoba II
1/12/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 20Estadio San Rafael

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Los Barrios36%
×Draw29%
Córdoba II35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Los Barrios
1.14
Córdoba II
1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 44 home / 110 away

creates per match

Los Barrios
0.93
Córdoba II
1.13

allows per match

Los Barrios
1.09
Córdoba II
1.34

finishing

Los Barrios+0.00on par
Córdoba II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Los Barrios ↓

Córdoba II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Los Barrios or draw
65%
Los Barrios or Córdoba II
71%
Draw or Córdoba II
64%

Winning margin

Los Barrios wins by 2+
15%
Córdoba II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Los Barrios 1+ goals
68%
Los Barrios 2+ goals
32%
Los Barrios 3+ goals
11%
Córdoba II 1+ goals
67%
Córdoba II 2+ goals
30%
Córdoba II 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Los Barrios (draw refunded)
51%
Córdoba II (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Los Barrios at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.09 · 44 matches

Córdoba II away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.34 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Los Barrios attack 0.93 + Córdoba II defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.14

Córdoba II attack 1.13 + Los Barrios defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Los Barrios scores more
36%
level
29%
Córdoba II scores more
35%

Los Barrios at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Los Barrios will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Los Barrios 0–2 Córdoba II

Córdoba II beat Los Barrios 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on January 12, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio San Rafael in Los Barrios.