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Córdoba II vs Los Barrios — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Córdoba II
Córdoba II
FT
8 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Los Barrios
Los Barrios
5/16/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 2nd Phase - 6Estadio Nuevo Arcángel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Córdoba II57%
×Draw23%
Los Barrios20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Córdoba II
1.80
Los Barrios
0.98

Córdoba II creates 84% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 42 away

creates per match

Córdoba II
1.60
Los Barrios
0.90

allows per match

Córdoba II
1.05
Los Barrios
2.00

finishing

Córdoba II+0.00on par
Los Barrios+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Córdoba II ↓

Los Barrios →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Córdoba II or draw
80%
Córdoba II or Los Barrios
77%
Draw or Los Barrios
43%

Winning margin

Córdoba II wins by 2+
32%
Los Barrios wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Córdoba II 1+ goals
83%
Córdoba II 2+ goals
54%
Córdoba II 3+ goals
27%
Los Barrios 1+ goals
62%
Los Barrios 2+ goals
26%
Los Barrios 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Córdoba II (draw refunded)
74%
Los Barrios (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Córdoba II at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.05 · 110 matches

Los Barrios away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.00 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Córdoba II attack 1.60 + Los Barrios defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.80

Los Barrios attack 0.90 + Córdoba II defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Córdoba II scores more
57%
level
23%
Los Barrios scores more
20%

Córdoba II at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Córdoba II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Córdoba II 8 – 2 Los Barrios

Córdoba II beat Los Barrios 8-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on May 16, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Arcángel in Córdoba.