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Lörrach-Brombach vs Göppinger SV — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Lörrach-Brombach
Lörrach-Brombach
FT
0 – 1
Göppinger SV
Göppinger SV
9/27/2020Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 8Lörrach-Grütt-Kunstrasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Lörrach-Brombach22%
×Draw23%
Göppinger SV55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lörrach-Brombach
1.09
Göppinger SV
1.85

Göppinger SV creates 70% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 76 away

creates per match

Lörrach-Brombach
0.72
Göppinger SV
1.49

allows per match

Lörrach-Brombach
2.20
Göppinger SV
1.47

finishing

Lörrach-Brombach+0.00on par
Göppinger SV+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lörrach-Brombach ↓

Göppinger SV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Lörrach-Brombach or draw
45%
Lörrach-Brombach or Göppinger SV
77%
Draw or Göppinger SV
78%

Winning margin

Lörrach-Brombach wins by 2+
8%
Göppinger SV wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Lörrach-Brombach 1+ goals
66%
Lörrach-Brombach 2+ goals
30%
Lörrach-Brombach 3+ goals
10%
Göppinger SV 1+ goals
84%
Göppinger SV 2+ goals
55%
Göppinger SV 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Lörrach-Brombach (draw refunded)
29%
Göppinger SV (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lörrach-Brombach at home — creates 0.72, concedes 2.20 · 25 matches

Göppinger SV away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.47 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lörrach-Brombach attack 0.72 + Göppinger SV defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.09

Göppinger SV attack 1.49 + Lörrach-Brombach defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Lörrach-Brombach scores more
22%
level
23%
Göppinger SV scores more
55%

Göppinger SV at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Göppinger SV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lörrach-Brombach vs Göppinger SV

Göppinger SV beat Lörrach-Brombach 1-0 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on September 27, 2020.

The match was played at Lörrach-Grütt-Kunstrasen in Lörrach.