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Göppinger SV vs Lörrach-Brombach — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Göppinger SV
Göppinger SV
CANC
12:00
Lörrach-Brombach
Lörrach-Brombach
4/17/2021Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 29Stadion SV Göppingen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Göppinger SV68%
×Draw17%
Lörrach-Brombach15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Göppinger SV
2.58
Lörrach-Brombach
1.14

Göppinger SV creates 126% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 26 away

creates per match

Göppinger SV
2.05
Lörrach-Brombach
1.00

allows per match

Göppinger SV
1.27
Lörrach-Brombach
3.12

finishing

Göppinger SV+0.00on par
Lörrach-Brombach+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Göppinger SV ↓

Lörrach-Brombach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Göppinger SV or draw
85%
Göppinger SV or Lörrach-Brombach
83%
Draw or Lörrach-Brombach
32%

Winning margin

Göppinger SV wins by 2+
46%
Lörrach-Brombach wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Göppinger SV 1+ goals
92%
Göppinger SV 2+ goals
72%
Göppinger SV 3+ goals
47%
Lörrach-Brombach 1+ goals
68%
Lörrach-Brombach 2+ goals
32%
Lörrach-Brombach 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Göppinger SV (draw refunded)
82%
Lörrach-Brombach (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Göppinger SV at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.27 · 77 matches

Lörrach-Brombach away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.12 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Göppinger SV attack 2.05 + Lörrach-Brombach defence 3.12 → ÷2 → 2.58

Lörrach-Brombach attack 1.00 + Göppinger SV defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Göppinger SV scores more
68%
level
17%
Lörrach-Brombach scores more
15%

Göppinger SV at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Göppinger SV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Göppinger SV host Lörrach-Brombach

April 17, 2021: Göppinger SV take on Lörrach-Brombach in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Göppinger SV host Lörrach-Brombach at Stadion SV Göppingen.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.