Lorient 4–1 Lille: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Lorient

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Lille

V. Le Goff 67'

R. Faivre 62'

J. Ponceau 10'

L. Abergel 9'

J. David 55'

8/27/2023

Ligue 1 · Round 3Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Lorient38%

×Draw27%

Lille35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LorientExpected goals in this matchLille

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.25

Lorient

1.31

Lille

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 26 away

1.32

creates per match

1.32

1.17

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Lorient

1.32

Lille

1.32

allows per match

Lorient

1.17

Lille

1.31

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

+0.06on par

finishing

Lorient+0.10scores more

Lille+0.06on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lorient ↓

Lille →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Lorient or draw

65%

Lorient or Lille

73%

Draw or Lille

62%

Winning margin

Lorient wins by 2+

17%

Lille wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Lorient 1+ goals

73%

Lorient 2+ goals

38%

Lorient 3+ goals

14%

Lille 1+ goals

71%

Lille 2+ goals

36%

Lille 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Lorient (draw refunded)

52%

Lille (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lorient at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.17 · 26 matches

Lille away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.31 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lorient attack 1.32 + Lille defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.31

Lille attack 1.32 + Lorient defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Lorient scores more

38%

level

27%

Lille scores more

35%

Lorient at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Lorient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

L. Abergel

Lorient · M

8.3

Match Events

9'

L. Abergel

10'

J. Ponceau↳ S. Doucouré

15'

Leny Yoro

27'

Bafodé Diakité

40'

A. Gomes← I. Miramón

40'

R. Cabella← H. Haraldsson

49'

51'

55'

57'

59'

59'

E. Kroupi← S. Doucouré

59'

J. Makengo← J. Ponceau

62'

R. Faivre↳ L. Abergel

67'

V. Le Goff

75'

Ivan Cavaleiro← E. Zhegrova

76'

J. Mvuka← R. Faivre

84'

G. Gudmundsson← Ismaily

87'

Yusuf Yazıcı

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LorientLille

Overview

36%Possession64%

9Total Shots18

1.45Expected Goals (xG)1.07

5Corners8

23Fouls12

Shots

9Total Shots18

6On Target7

3Off Target5

0Blocked6

7Inside Box8

2Outside Box10

Passing

36%Possession64%

322Total Passes578

255Accurate Passes505

79%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

6Saves2

Discipline

23Fouls12

2Yellow Cards4

2Offsides0

Lorient 4 – 1 Lille

Lorient beat Lille 4-1 in Ligue 1 on August 27, 2023.

Goals: L. Abergel (9'), J. Ponceau (10'), J. David (55'), R. Faivre (62'), V. Le Goff (67').

Lille controlled possession (64%) and registered 18 shots to 9.

The match was played at Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat in Lorient.

Lorient vs Lille — Ligue 1 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Lorient 4 – 1 Lille