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Lille vs Lorient — Ligue 1 2018

Lille
Lille
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Lorient
Lorient
E. Zhegrova 90+1', 89'
R. Cabella 13'
I. Koné 77'
4/2/2023Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 29Decathlon Arena – Stade Pierre-Mauroy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Lille54%
×Draw24%
Lorient22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lille
1.73
Lorient
1.02

Lille creates 70% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 26 away

creates per match

Lille
1.77
Lorient
1.04

allows per match

Lille
0.99
Lorient
1.70

finishing

Lille-0.12scores less
Lorient-0.04on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lille ↓

Lorient →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Lille or draw
78%
Lille or Lorient
76%
Draw or Lorient
46%

Winning margin

Lille wins by 2+
30%
Lorient wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Lille 1+ goals
82%
Lille 2+ goals
52%
Lille 3+ goals
25%
Lorient 1+ goals
64%
Lorient 2+ goals
27%
Lorient 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Lille (draw refunded)
71%
Lorient (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lille at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.99 · 26 matches

Lorient away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.70 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lille attack 1.77 + Lorient defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.73

Lorient attack 1.04 + Lille defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Lille scores more
54%
level
24%
Lorient scores more
22%

Lille at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Lille will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23
E. ZhegrovaLilleLille · F
9.0

Match Events

13'
R. Cabella↳ A. Gomes
30'
M. Bayo← A. Ounas
45+1'
Laurent Abergel
46'
Angel Gomes
51'
Timothy Weah
54'
Bamo Meïté
67'
A. Aouchiche← J. Ponceau
74'
I. Koné← Y. Cathline
74'
S. Diarra← R. Faivre
75'
B. Diakité← R. Cabella
77'
I. Koné
79'
Laurent Abergel
79'
Laurent Abergel
81'
E. Zhegrova← T. Weah
84'
D. Yongwa← B. Dieng
85'
Benjamin André
89'
E. Zhegrova↳ A. Gomes
90+1'
E. Zhegrova↳ M. Bayo

Possession

60%Lille

Shots

20Lille

Pass accuracy

52%Lille

Statistics

LilleLorient
Overview
60%Possession40%
20Total Shots2
2.00Expected Goals (xG)0.16
5Corners1
14Fouls9
Shots
20Total Shots2
7On Target1
8Off Target1
5Blocked0
12Inside Box1
8Outside Box1
Passing
60%Possession40%
585Total Passes393
516Accurate Passes324
88%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
0Saves4
Discipline
14Fouls9
3Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards1
2Offsides1

Lille 3 – 1 Lorient

Lille beat Lorient 3-1 in Ligue 1 on April 2, 2023.

Goals: R. Cabella (13'), I. Koné (77'), E. Zhegrova (89', 90+1').

Lille controlled possession (60%) and registered 20 shots to 2.

The match was played at Decathlon Arena – Stade Pierre-Mauroy in Villeneuve d'Ascq.