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Lorca vs La Unión Atlético — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Lorca
Lorca
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
La Unión Atlético
La Unión Atlético
Miguel 60'
Schuster 30'
Perico 24', 18'
1/10/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 11Estadio Francisco Artés Carrasco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Lorca19%
×Draw25%
La Unión Atlético56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lorca
0.82
La Unión Atlético
1.59

La Unión Atlético creates 94% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 45 away

creates per match

Lorca
0.53
La Unión Atlético
1.11

allows per match

Lorca
2.07
La Unión Atlético
1.11

finishing

Lorca+0.00on par
La Unión Atlético+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lorca ↓

La Unión Atlético →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–114%
0–211%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Lorca or draw
44%
Lorca or La Unión Atlético
75%
Draw or La Unión Atlético
81%

Winning margin

Lorca wins by 2+
6%
La Unión Atlético wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Lorca 1+ goals
56%
Lorca 2+ goals
20%
Lorca 3+ goals
5%
La Unión Atlético 1+ goals
80%
La Unión Atlético 2+ goals
47%
La Unión Atlético 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Lorca (draw refunded)
26%
La Unión Atlético (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lorca at home — creates 0.53, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

La Unión Atlético away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.11 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lorca attack 0.53 + La Unión Atlético defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.82

La Unión Atlético attack 1.11 + Lorca defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Lorca scores more
19%
level
25%
La Unión Atlético scores more
56%

La Unión Atlético at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "La Unión Atlético will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
Perico
24'
Perico
27'
Beethoven Marques← Rubén Ochoa
30'
Schuster
46'
M. Sidibé← Nono
60'
Iván Santisteban← Perico
60'
Miguel
68'
Achraf← Raúl Peláez
79'
Rubén← Cristian Muñoz
Lorca
La
G. Savu
Savu
Julio Algar
Algar
Cristian Muñoz
▼
Muñoz
Harri
Harri
Sergio Jiménez
Jiménez
Schuster
⚽
Schuster
Paco Collados
Collados
Perico
⚽2
▼
Perico
Renato
Renato
Miguel
⚽
Miguel
Nono
▼
Nono
Juan Vega
Vega
Alejandro Ros
Ros
Alexis Viveros
Viveros
Lloris Warris
Warris
Javier Manzanares
Manzanare
Y. Mohamed
Mohamed
Rubén Ochoa
▼
Ochoa
I. Anghel
Anghel
Yuti
Yuti
Raúl Peláez
▼
Peláez
Yannis Faris
Faris
José Garijo
Manager: José Garijo
27'▲Beethoven Marques←▼Rubén Ochoa
68'▲Achraf←▼Raúl Peláez

Lorca substitutes

MarquesAchraf
Manuel Palomeque
Manager: Manuel Palomeque
46'▲M. Sidibé←▼Nono
60'▲Iván Santisteban←▼Perico
79'▲Rubén←▼Cristian Muñoz

La Unión Atlético substitutes

SidibéSantistebanRubén

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Lorca 0–4 La Unión Atlético

La Unión Atlético beat Lorca 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on January 10, 2021.

Goals: Perico (18', 24'), Schuster (30'), Miguel (60').

The match was played at Estadio Francisco Artés Carrasco in Lorca.