La Unión Atlético 4–0 Lorca: Result & Stats

La Unión Atlético

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Lorca

Miguel 90+2'

Perico 71'

Julio Algar 45+2'

David Valdeolivas 12'

3/28/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 22Estadio Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

La Unión Atlético77%

×Draw16%

Lorca7%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

La Unión AtléticoExpected goals in this matchLorca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

0.54

La Unión Atlético

2.33

Lorca

0.54

La Unión Atlético creates 331% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 15 away

1.60

creates per match

0.47

0.62

allows per match

3.07

creates per match

La Unión Atlético

1.60

Lorca

0.47

allows per match

La Unión Atlético

0.62

Lorca

3.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

La Unión Atlético+0.00on par

Lorca+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Unión Atlético ↓

Lorca →

0–06%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–013%

1–17%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2–016%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3–012%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–07%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

La Unión Atlético or draw

93%

La Unión Atlético or Lorca

84%

Draw or Lorca

23%

Winning margin

La Unión Atlético wins by 2+

54%

Lorca wins by 2+

Team goals

La Unión Atlético 1+ goals

90%

La Unión Atlético 2+ goals

67%

La Unión Atlético 3+ goals

41%

Lorca 1+ goals

42%

Lorca 2+ goals

10%

Lorca 3+ goals

Draw no bet

La Unión Atlético (draw refunded)

92%

Lorca (draw refunded)

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

La Unión Atlético at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.62 · 45 matches

Lorca away — creates 0.47, concedes 3.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

La Unión Atlético attack 1.60 + Lorca defence 3.07 → ÷2 → 2.33

Lorca attack 0.47 + La Unión Atlético defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 77%?"

La Unión Atlético scores more

77%

level

16%

Lorca scores more

La Unión Atlético at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "La Unión Atlético will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

I. Anghel← N. Timothée

12'

David Valdeolivas

40'

Harri← Cristian Muñoz

45+2'

Julio Algar

55'

Miguel← Juan Acosta

69'

Juan Vega← Adam Radow

71'

Perico

76'

Rubén← Sergio Jiménez

76'

Iván Santisteban← Chema

90+2'

Lorca

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

Manager: Manuel Palomeque

40'▲Harri←▼Cristian Muñoz

55'▲Miguel←▼Juan Acosta

76'▲Rubén←▼Sergio Jiménez

76'▲Iván Santisteban←▼Chema

La Unión Atlético substitutes

HarriMiguelRubénSantisteban

Manager: José Garijo

7'▲I. Anghel←▼N. Timothée

69'▲Juan Vega←▼Adam Radow

Lorca substitutes

AnghelVega