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Lorca vs CAP Ciudad de Murcia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Lorca
Lorca
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
CAP Ciudad de Murcia
CAP Ciudad de Murcia
11/29/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 7Estadio Francisco Artés Carrasco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Lorca26%
×Draw26%
CAP Ciudad de Murcia48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lorca
0.99
CAP Ciudad de Murcia
1.46

CAP Ciudad de Murcia creates 47% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 78 away

creates per match

Lorca
0.53
CAP Ciudad de Murcia
0.85

allows per match

Lorca
2.07
CAP Ciudad de Murcia
1.45

finishing

Lorca+0.00on par
CAP Ciudad de Murcia+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lorca ↓

CAP Ciudad de Murcia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Lorca or draw
52%
Lorca or CAP Ciudad de Murcia
74%
Draw or CAP Ciudad de Murcia
74%

Winning margin

Lorca wins by 2+
9%
CAP Ciudad de Murcia wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Lorca 1+ goals
63%
Lorca 2+ goals
26%
Lorca 3+ goals
8%
CAP Ciudad de Murcia 1+ goals
77%
CAP Ciudad de Murcia 2+ goals
43%
CAP Ciudad de Murcia 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Lorca (draw refunded)
35%
CAP Ciudad de Murcia (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lorca at home — creates 0.53, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

CAP Ciudad de Murcia away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.45 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lorca attack 0.53 + CAP Ciudad de Murcia defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 0.99

CAP Ciudad de Murcia attack 0.85 + Lorca defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Lorca scores more
26%
level
26%
CAP Ciudad de Murcia scores more
48%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "CAP Ciudad de Murcia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lorca vs CAP Ciudad de Murcia

CAP Ciudad de Murcia beat Lorca 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on November 29, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Francisco Artés Carrasco in Lorca.