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CAP Ciudad de Murcia vs Lorca — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

CAP Ciudad de Murcia
CAP Ciudad de Murcia
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Lorca
Lorca
2/28/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 18Estadio José Barnés

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

CAP Ciudad de Murcia67%
×Draw20%
Lorca13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CAP Ciudad de Murcia
2.05
Lorca
0.76

CAP Ciudad de Murcia creates 170% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 15 away

creates per match

CAP Ciudad de Murcia
1.03
Lorca
0.47

allows per match

CAP Ciudad de Murcia
1.04
Lorca
3.07

finishing

CAP Ciudad de Murcia+0.00on par
Lorca+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CAP Ciudad de Murcia ↓

Lorca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

CAP Ciudad de Murcia or draw
87%
CAP Ciudad de Murcia or Lorca
80%
Draw or Lorca
33%

Winning margin

CAP Ciudad de Murcia wins by 2+
42%
Lorca wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 1+ goals
87%
CAP Ciudad de Murcia 2+ goals
61%
CAP Ciudad de Murcia 3+ goals
33%
Lorca 1+ goals
53%
Lorca 2+ goals
18%
Lorca 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

CAP Ciudad de Murcia (draw refunded)
84%
Lorca (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CAP Ciudad de Murcia at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.04 · 78 matches

Lorca away — creates 0.47, concedes 3.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CAP Ciudad de Murcia attack 1.03 + Lorca defence 3.07 → ÷2 → 2.05

Lorca attack 0.47 + CAP Ciudad de Murcia defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

CAP Ciudad de Murcia scores more
67%
level
20%
Lorca scores more
13%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "CAP Ciudad de Murcia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: CAP Ciudad de Murcia 1–0 Lorca

CAP Ciudad de Murcia beat Lorca 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on February 28, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio José Barnés in Murcia.