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Lorca FC vs Lorca Deportiva — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Lorca FC
Lorca FC
CANC
00:00
Lorca Deportiva
Lorca Deportiva
4/19/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 34Estadio Francisco Artés Carrasco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Lorca FC39%
×Draw26%
Lorca Deportiva35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lorca FC
1.39
Lorca Deportiva
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 80 away

creates per match

Lorca FC
1.71
Lorca Deportiva
1.57

allows per match

Lorca FC
1.00
Lorca Deportiva
1.06

finishing

Lorca FC+0.00on par
Lorca Deportiva+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lorca FC ↓

Lorca Deportiva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Lorca FC or draw
65%
Lorca FC or Lorca Deportiva
74%
Draw or Lorca Deportiva
61%

Winning margin

Lorca FC wins by 2+
18%
Lorca Deportiva wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Lorca FC 1+ goals
75%
Lorca FC 2+ goals
40%
Lorca FC 3+ goals
16%
Lorca Deportiva 1+ goals
72%
Lorca Deportiva 2+ goals
37%
Lorca Deportiva 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Lorca FC (draw refunded)
53%
Lorca Deportiva (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lorca FC at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

Lorca Deportiva away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.06 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lorca FC attack 1.71 + Lorca Deportiva defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.39

Lorca Deportiva attack 1.57 + Lorca FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Lorca FC scores more
39%
level
26%
Lorca Deportiva scores more
35%

Lorca FC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Lorca FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Lorca FC vs Lorca Deportiva — Match Preview

Lorca FC face Lorca Deportiva on April 19, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Lorca FC host Lorca Deportiva at Estadio Francisco Artés Carrasco.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.