Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Lorca Deportiva vs Lorca FC — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Lorca Deportiva
Lorca Deportiva
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Lorca FC
Lorca FC
12/1/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 15Estadio Francisco Artés Carrasco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Lorca Deportiva54%
×Draw26%
Lorca FC20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lorca Deportiva
1.55
Lorca FC
0.84

Lorca Deportiva creates 85% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 14 away

creates per match

Lorca Deportiva
2.11
Lorca FC
0.93

allows per match

Lorca Deportiva
0.75
Lorca FC
1.00

finishing

Lorca Deportiva+0.00on par
Lorca FC+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lorca Deportiva ↓

Lorca FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Lorca Deportiva or draw
80%
Lorca Deportiva or Lorca FC
74%
Draw or Lorca FC
46%

Winning margin

Lorca Deportiva wins by 2+
28%
Lorca FC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Lorca Deportiva 1+ goals
79%
Lorca Deportiva 2+ goals
46%
Lorca Deportiva 3+ goals
20%
Lorca FC 1+ goals
57%
Lorca FC 2+ goals
21%
Lorca FC 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Lorca Deportiva (draw refunded)
73%
Lorca FC (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lorca Deportiva at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.75 · 80 matches

Lorca FC away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lorca Deportiva attack 2.11 + Lorca FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.55

Lorca FC attack 0.93 + Lorca Deportiva defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Lorca Deportiva scores more
54%
level
26%
Lorca FC scores more
20%

Lorca Deportiva at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Lorca Deportiva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lorca Deportiva vs Lorca FC

Lorca Deportiva beat Lorca FC 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on December 1, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Francisco Artés Carrasco in Lorca.