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Lorca FC vs EDMF Churra — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Lorca FC
Lorca FC
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
EDMF Churra
EDMF Churra
1/18/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 21Estadio Francisco Artés Carrasco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Lorca FC57%
×Draw23%
EDMF Churra20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lorca FC
1.82
EDMF Churra
0.98

Lorca FC creates 86% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 28 away

creates per match

Lorca FC
1.71
EDMF Churra
0.96

allows per match

Lorca FC
1.00
EDMF Churra
1.93

finishing

Lorca FC+0.00on par
EDMF Churra+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lorca FC ↓

EDMF Churra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Lorca FC or draw
80%
Lorca FC or EDMF Churra
77%
Draw or EDMF Churra
43%

Winning margin

Lorca FC wins by 2+
33%
EDMF Churra wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Lorca FC 1+ goals
84%
Lorca FC 2+ goals
54%
Lorca FC 3+ goals
27%
EDMF Churra 1+ goals
62%
EDMF Churra 2+ goals
26%
EDMF Churra 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Lorca FC (draw refunded)
74%
EDMF Churra (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lorca FC at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

EDMF Churra away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.93 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lorca FC attack 1.71 + EDMF Churra defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.82

EDMF Churra attack 0.96 + Lorca FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Lorca FC scores more
57%
level
23%
EDMF Churra scores more
20%

Lorca FC at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Lorca FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Lorca FC 2–2 EDMF Churra

Lorca FC and EDMF Churra drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on January 18, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Francisco Artés Carrasco in Lorca.