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EDMF Churra vs Lorca FC — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

EDMF Churra
EDMF Churra
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Lorca FC
Lorca FC
8/31/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 2Campo de EDMF Churra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

EDMF Churra37%
×Draw31%
Lorca FC33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

EDMF Churra
1.05
Lorca FC
0.98

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 14 away

creates per match

EDMF Churra
1.10
Lorca FC
0.93

allows per match

EDMF Churra
1.03
Lorca FC
1.00

finishing

EDMF Churra+0.00on par
Lorca FC+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EDMF Churra ↓

Lorca FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

EDMF Churra or draw
67%
EDMF Churra or Lorca FC
69%
Draw or Lorca FC
63%

Winning margin

EDMF Churra wins by 2+
14%
Lorca FC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

EDMF Churra 1+ goals
65%
EDMF Churra 2+ goals
28%
EDMF Churra 3+ goals
9%
Lorca FC 1+ goals
62%
Lorca FC 2+ goals
26%
Lorca FC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

EDMF Churra (draw refunded)
53%
Lorca FC (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EDMF Churra at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.03 · 30 matches

Lorca FC away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EDMF Churra attack 1.10 + Lorca FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.05

Lorca FC attack 0.93 + EDMF Churra defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

EDMF Churra scores more
37%
level
31%
Lorca FC scores more
33%

EDMF Churra at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "EDMF Churra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: EDMF Churra vs Lorca FC

EDMF Churra beat Lorca FC 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on August 31, 2019.

The match was played at Campo de EDMF Churra in Murcia.