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Lorca FC vs Atlético Pulpileño — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Lorca FC
Lorca FC
CANC
22:00
Atlético Pulpileño
Atlético Pulpileño
5/2/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 36Estadio Francisco Artés Carrasco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Lorca FC41%
×Draw28%
Atlético Pulpileño31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lorca FC
1.28
Atlético Pulpileño
1.08

Lorca FC creates 19% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 93 away

creates per match

Lorca FC
1.71
Atlético Pulpileño
1.16

allows per match

Lorca FC
1.00
Atlético Pulpileño
0.85

finishing

Lorca FC+0.00on par
Atlético Pulpileño+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lorca FC ↓

Atlético Pulpileño →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Lorca FC or draw
69%
Lorca FC or Atlético Pulpileño
72%
Draw or Atlético Pulpileño
59%

Winning margin

Lorca FC wins by 2+
18%
Atlético Pulpileño wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Lorca FC 1+ goals
72%
Lorca FC 2+ goals
37%
Lorca FC 3+ goals
14%
Atlético Pulpileño 1+ goals
66%
Atlético Pulpileño 2+ goals
29%
Atlético Pulpileño 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Lorca FC (draw refunded)
57%
Atlético Pulpileño (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lorca FC at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

Atlético Pulpileño away — creates 1.16, concedes 0.85 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lorca FC attack 1.71 + Atlético Pulpileño defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.28

Atlético Pulpileño attack 1.16 + Lorca FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Lorca FC scores more
41%
level
28%
Atlético Pulpileño scores more
31%

Lorca FC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Lorca FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Lorca FC host Atlético Pulpileño

May 2, 2020: Lorca FC take on Atlético Pulpileño in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Lorca FC host Atlético Pulpileño at Estadio Francisco Artés Carrasco.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.