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Atlético Pulpileño vs Lorca FC — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Atlético Pulpileño
Atlético Pulpileño
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Lorca FC
Lorca FC
12/15/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 17Estadio San Miguel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Atlético Pulpileño45%
×Draw30%
Lorca FC25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Pulpileño
1.19
Lorca FC
0.80

Atlético Pulpileño creates 49% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 14 away

creates per match

Atlético Pulpileño
1.37
Lorca FC
0.93

allows per match

Atlético Pulpileño
0.66
Lorca FC
1.00

finishing

Atlético Pulpileño+0.00on par
Lorca FC+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Pulpileño ↓

Lorca FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Atlético Pulpileño or draw
75%
Atlético Pulpileño or Lorca FC
70%
Draw or Lorca FC
55%

Winning margin

Atlético Pulpileño wins by 2+
20%
Lorca FC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Atlético Pulpileño 1+ goals
70%
Atlético Pulpileño 2+ goals
33%
Atlético Pulpileño 3+ goals
12%
Lorca FC 1+ goals
55%
Lorca FC 2+ goals
19%
Lorca FC 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Atlético Pulpileño (draw refunded)
65%
Lorca FC (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Pulpileño at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.66 · 93 matches

Lorca FC away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Pulpileño attack 1.37 + Lorca FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.19

Lorca FC attack 0.93 + Atlético Pulpileño defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Atlético Pulpileño scores more
45%
level
30%
Lorca FC scores more
25%

Atlético Pulpileño at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Atlético Pulpileño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Atlético Pulpileño 0–0 Lorca FC

Atlético Pulpileño and Lorca FC drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on December 15, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio San Miguel in Pulpí.