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Lorca Deportiva vs Cartagena II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Lorca Deportiva
Lorca Deportiva
CANC
00:00
Cartagena II
Cartagena II
3/15/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 29Estadio Francisco Artés Carrasco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Lorca Deportiva50%
×Draw25%
Cartagena II25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lorca Deportiva
1.59
Cartagena II
1.04

Lorca Deportiva creates 53% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 27 away

creates per match

Lorca Deportiva
2.11
Cartagena II
1.33

allows per match

Lorca Deportiva
0.75
Cartagena II
1.07

finishing

Lorca Deportiva+0.00on par
Cartagena II+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lorca Deportiva ↓

Cartagena II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Lorca Deportiva or draw
75%
Lorca Deportiva or Cartagena II
75%
Draw or Cartagena II
50%

Winning margin

Lorca Deportiva wins by 2+
26%
Cartagena II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Lorca Deportiva 1+ goals
80%
Lorca Deportiva 2+ goals
47%
Lorca Deportiva 3+ goals
21%
Cartagena II 1+ goals
65%
Cartagena II 2+ goals
28%
Cartagena II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Lorca Deportiva (draw refunded)
67%
Cartagena II (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lorca Deportiva at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.75 · 80 matches

Cartagena II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.07 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lorca Deportiva attack 2.11 + Cartagena II defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.59

Cartagena II attack 1.33 + Lorca Deportiva defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Lorca Deportiva scores more
50%
level
25%
Cartagena II scores more
25%

Lorca Deportiva at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Lorca Deportiva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Lorca Deportiva face Cartagena II (Tercera División RFEF - Group 13)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 returns with Lorca Deportiva hosting Cartagena II. Match starts March 15, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Lorca Deportiva host Cartagena II at Estadio Francisco Artés Carrasco.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.