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Cartagena II vs Lorca Deportiva — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Cartagena II
Cartagena II
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Lorca Deportiva
Lorca Deportiva
10/27/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 10Escuela De Fútbol Ciudad Jardín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Cartagena II40%
×Draw27%
Lorca Deportiva34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cartagena II
1.34
Lorca Deportiva
1.21

Cartagena II creates 11% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 80 away

creates per match

Cartagena II
1.63
Lorca Deportiva
1.57

allows per match

Cartagena II
0.85
Lorca Deportiva
1.06

finishing

Cartagena II+0.00on par
Lorca Deportiva+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cartagena II ↓

Lorca Deportiva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Cartagena II or draw
66%
Cartagena II or Lorca Deportiva
73%
Draw or Lorca Deportiva
60%

Winning margin

Cartagena II wins by 2+
18%
Lorca Deportiva wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Cartagena II 1+ goals
74%
Cartagena II 2+ goals
39%
Cartagena II 3+ goals
15%
Lorca Deportiva 1+ goals
70%
Lorca Deportiva 2+ goals
34%
Lorca Deportiva 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Cartagena II (draw refunded)
54%
Lorca Deportiva (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cartagena II at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.85 · 27 matches

Lorca Deportiva away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.06 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cartagena II attack 1.63 + Lorca Deportiva defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.34

Lorca Deportiva attack 1.57 + Cartagena II defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Cartagena II scores more
40%
level
27%
Lorca Deportiva scores more
34%

Cartagena II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Cartagena II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cartagena II vs Lorca Deportiva

Cartagena II beat Lorca Deportiva 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on October 27, 2019.

The match was played at Escuela De Fútbol Ciudad Jardín in Cartagena.