Lorca Deportiva 2–1 CAP Ciudad de Murcia

Lorca Deportiva

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

M. Cellou 54'

Mohamed Feriani 11'

José Rivas 74'

3/5/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 24Estadio Francisco Artés Carrasco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Lorca Deportiva61%

×Draw23%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lorca DeportivaExpected goals in this matchCAP Ciudad de Murcia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

0.80

Lorca Deportiva

1.78

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

0.80

Lorca Deportiva creates 123% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 78 away

2.11

creates per match

0.85

0.75

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Lorca Deportiva

2.11

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

0.85

allows per match

Lorca Deportiva

0.75

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lorca Deportiva+0.00on par

CAP Ciudad de Murcia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lorca Deportiva ↓

CAP Ciudad de Murcia →

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Lorca Deportiva or draw

84%

Lorca Deportiva or CAP Ciudad de Murcia

77%

Draw or CAP Ciudad de Murcia

39%

Winning margin

Lorca Deportiva wins by 2+

35%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia wins by 2+

Team goals

Lorca Deportiva 1+ goals

83%

Lorca Deportiva 2+ goals

53%

Lorca Deportiva 3+ goals

26%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 1+ goals

55%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 2+ goals

19%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Lorca Deportiva (draw refunded)

79%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Lorca Deportiva at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.75 · 80 matches

CAP Ciudad de Murcia away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.45 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Lorca Deportiva attack 2.11 + CAP Ciudad de Murcia defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.78

CAP Ciudad de Murcia attack 0.85 + Lorca Deportiva defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 61%?"

Lorca Deportiva scores more

61%

level

23%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia scores more

16%

Lorca Deportiva at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Lorca Deportiva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

Mohamed Feriani

54'

M. Cellou

58'

Raúl Tornel← Fran Martínez

58'

Felipe Valverde← Jesús Ros

71'

Pablo Serrano← M. Cellou

71'

Juande Martínez← Víctor Oliver

74'

José Rivas

76'

Diego Jiménez← Alejandro Pascual

88'

G. Issa← Titi

88'

M. Farisato← Javi Vera

Lorca

CAP

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Cellou

Manager: J. Acciari

71'▲Pablo Serrano←▼M. Cellou

71'▲Juande Martínez←▼Víctor Oliver

88'▲G. Issa←▼Titi

88'▲M. Farisato←▼Javi Vera

Lorca Deportiva substitutes

SerranoMartínezIssaFarisato

Manager: Francisco Lorca

58'▲Raúl Tornel←▼Fran Martínez

58'▲Felipe Valverde←▼Jesús Ros

76'▲Diego Jiménez←▼Alejandro Pascual

CAP Ciudad de Murcia substitutes

TornelValverdeJiménez