CAP Ciudad de Murcia 0–2 Lorca Deportiva

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Lorca Deportiva

I. Comvalius 87'

Dani Bermejo 60'

11/6/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 9Estadio José Barnés

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

CAP Ciudad de Murcia30%

×Draw28%

Lorca Deportiva43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CAP Ciudad de MurciaExpected goals in this matchLorca Deportiva

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.31

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.04

Lorca Deportiva

1.31

Lorca Deportiva creates 26% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 80 away

1.03

creates per match

1.57

1.04

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.03

Lorca Deportiva

1.57

allows per match

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.04

Lorca Deportiva

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CAP Ciudad de Murcia+0.00on par

Lorca Deportiva+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CAP Ciudad de Murcia ↓

Lorca Deportiva →

0–010%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

CAP Ciudad de Murcia or draw

57%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia or Lorca Deportiva

72%

Draw or Lorca Deportiva

70%

Winning margin

CAP Ciudad de Murcia wins by 2+

11%

Lorca Deportiva wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 1+ goals

65%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 2+ goals

28%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 3+ goals

Lorca Deportiva 1+ goals

73%

Lorca Deportiva 2+ goals

38%

Lorca Deportiva 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

CAP Ciudad de Murcia (draw refunded)

41%

Lorca Deportiva (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

CAP Ciudad de Murcia at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.04 · 78 matches

Lorca Deportiva away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.06 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

CAP Ciudad de Murcia attack 1.03 + Lorca Deportiva defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.04

Lorca Deportiva attack 1.57 + CAP Ciudad de Murcia defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

CAP Ciudad de Murcia scores more

30%

level

28%

Lorca Deportiva scores more

43%

Lorca Deportiva at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Lorca Deportiva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

57'

Alberto Martínez← Francisco Carrillo

60'

Dani Bermejo

65'

Fran Martínez← José Rivas

65'

Diego Jiménez← Asensio Miñarro

69'

L. Pinto← Titi

69'

Javi Vera← Alberto Rodríguez

79'

I. Comvalius← M. Cellou

87'

I. Comvalius

88'

Andrés← Dani Bermejo

CAP

Lorca

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Francisco Lorca

57'▲Alberto Martínez←▼Francisco Carrillo

65'▲Fran Martínez←▼José Rivas

65'▲Diego Jiménez←▼Asensio Miñarro

CAP Ciudad de Murcia substitutes

MartínezMartínezJiménez

Manager: Sergio Aracil

69'▲L. Pinto←▼Titi

69'▲Javi Vera←▼Alberto Rodríguez

79'▲I. Comvalius←▼M. Cellou

88'▲Andrés←▼Dani Bermejo

Lorca Deportiva substitutes

PintoVeraComvaliusAndrés