Lorca Deportiva 1–0 Bala Azul: Result & Stats

Lorca Deportiva

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bala Azul

2/13/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 23Estadio Francisco Artés Carrasco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Lorca Deportiva58%

×Draw24%

Bala Azul18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lorca DeportivaExpected goals in this matchBala Azul

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

0.82

Lorca Deportiva

1.71

Bala Azul

0.82

Lorca Deportiva creates 109% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 51 away

2.11

creates per match

0.90

0.75

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Lorca Deportiva

2.11

Bala Azul

0.90

allows per match

Lorca Deportiva

0.75

Bala Azul

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lorca Deportiva+0.00on par

Bala Azul+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lorca Deportiva ↓

Bala Azul →

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Lorca Deportiva or draw

82%

Lorca Deportiva or Bala Azul

76%

Draw or Bala Azul

42%

Winning margin

Lorca Deportiva wins by 2+

33%

Bala Azul wins by 2+

Team goals

Lorca Deportiva 1+ goals

82%

Lorca Deportiva 2+ goals

51%

Lorca Deportiva 3+ goals

24%

Bala Azul 1+ goals

56%

Bala Azul 2+ goals

20%

Bala Azul 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Lorca Deportiva (draw refunded)

77%

Bala Azul (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Lorca Deportiva at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.75 · 80 matches

Bala Azul away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.31 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Lorca Deportiva attack 2.11 + Bala Azul defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.71

Bala Azul attack 0.90 + Lorca Deportiva defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 58%?"

Lorca Deportiva scores more

58%

level

24%

Bala Azul scores more

18%

Lorca Deportiva at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Lorca Deportiva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lorca Deportiva vs Bala Azul

Lorca Deportiva beat Bala Azul 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on February 13, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Francisco Artés Carrasco in Lorca.

Lorca Deportiva vs Bala Azul — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Lorca Deportiva vs Bala Azul