Bala Azul 0–3 Lorca Deportiva: Result & Stats

Bala Azul

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Lorca Deportiva

10/9/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 6Estadio Playa Sol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Bala Azul33%

×Draw28%

Lorca Deportiva38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bala AzulExpected goals in this matchLorca Deportiva

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.19

Bala Azul

1.09

Lorca Deportiva

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 80 away

1.12

creates per match

1.57

0.80

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Bala Azul

1.12

Lorca Deportiva

1.57

allows per match

Bala Azul

0.80

Lorca Deportiva

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bala Azul+0.00on par

Lorca Deportiva+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bala Azul ↓

Lorca Deportiva →

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Bala Azul or draw

62%

Bala Azul or Lorca Deportiva

72%

Draw or Lorca Deportiva

67%

Winning margin

Bala Azul wins by 2+

13%

Lorca Deportiva wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Bala Azul 1+ goals

66%

Bala Azul 2+ goals

30%

Bala Azul 3+ goals

10%

Lorca Deportiva 1+ goals

70%

Lorca Deportiva 2+ goals

33%

Lorca Deportiva 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Bala Azul (draw refunded)

47%

Lorca Deportiva (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Bala Azul at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.80 · 51 matches

Lorca Deportiva away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.06 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Bala Azul attack 1.12 + Lorca Deportiva defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.09

Lorca Deportiva attack 1.57 + Bala Azul defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

Bala Azul scores more

33%

level

28%

Lorca Deportiva scores more

38%

Lorca Deportiva at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Lorca Deportiva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Bala Azul 0–3 Lorca Deportiva

Lorca Deportiva beat Bala Azul 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on October 9, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Playa Sol in Puerto de Mazarrón.

Bala Azul vs Lorca Deportiva — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Bala Azul 0–3 Lorca Deportiva