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Lorca Deportiva vs Atlético Pulpileño — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Lorca Deportiva
Lorca Deportiva
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Atlético Pulpileño
Atlético Pulpileño
4/21/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 30Estadio Francisco Artés Carrasco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Lorca Deportiva49%
×Draw26%
Atlético Pulpileño24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lorca Deportiva
1.48
Atlético Pulpileño
0.95

Lorca Deportiva creates 56% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 93 away

creates per match

Lorca Deportiva
2.11
Atlético Pulpileño
1.16

allows per match

Lorca Deportiva
0.75
Atlético Pulpileño
0.85

finishing

Lorca Deportiva+0.00on par
Atlético Pulpileño+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lorca Deportiva ↓

Atlético Pulpileño →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Lorca Deportiva or draw
76%
Lorca Deportiva or Atlético Pulpileño
74%
Draw or Atlético Pulpileño
51%

Winning margin

Lorca Deportiva wins by 2+
25%
Atlético Pulpileño wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Lorca Deportiva 1+ goals
77%
Lorca Deportiva 2+ goals
43%
Lorca Deportiva 3+ goals
19%
Atlético Pulpileño 1+ goals
61%
Atlético Pulpileño 2+ goals
25%
Atlético Pulpileño 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Lorca Deportiva (draw refunded)
67%
Atlético Pulpileño (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lorca Deportiva at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.75 · 80 matches

Atlético Pulpileño away — creates 1.16, concedes 0.85 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lorca Deportiva attack 2.11 + Atlético Pulpileño defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.48

Atlético Pulpileño attack 1.16 + Lorca Deportiva defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Lorca Deportiva scores more
49%
level
26%
Atlético Pulpileño scores more
24%

Lorca Deportiva at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Lorca Deportiva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Lorca Deportiva 1–0 Atlético Pulpileño

Lorca Deportiva beat Atlético Pulpileño 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on April 21, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Francisco Artés Carrasco in Lorca.