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Atlético Pulpileño vs Lorca Deportiva — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Atlético Pulpileño
Atlético Pulpileño
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Lorca Deportiva
Lorca Deportiva
1/5/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 9Estadio San Miguel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Atlético Pulpileño39%
×Draw28%
Lorca Deportiva33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Pulpileño
1.22
Lorca Deportiva
1.11

Atlético Pulpileño creates 10% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 80 away

creates per match

Atlético Pulpileño
1.37
Lorca Deportiva
1.57

allows per match

Atlético Pulpileño
0.66
Lorca Deportiva
1.06

finishing

Atlético Pulpileño+0.00on par
Lorca Deportiva+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Pulpileño ↓

Lorca Deportiva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Atlético Pulpileño or draw
67%
Atlético Pulpileño or Lorca Deportiva
72%
Draw or Lorca Deportiva
61%

Winning margin

Atlético Pulpileño wins by 2+
17%
Lorca Deportiva wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Atlético Pulpileño 1+ goals
70%
Atlético Pulpileño 2+ goals
34%
Atlético Pulpileño 3+ goals
12%
Lorca Deportiva 1+ goals
67%
Lorca Deportiva 2+ goals
30%
Lorca Deportiva 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Atlético Pulpileño (draw refunded)
54%
Lorca Deportiva (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Pulpileño at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.66 · 93 matches

Lorca Deportiva away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.06 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Pulpileño attack 1.37 + Lorca Deportiva defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.22

Lorca Deportiva attack 1.57 + Atlético Pulpileño defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Atlético Pulpileño scores more
39%
level
28%
Lorca Deportiva scores more
33%

Atlético Pulpileño at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Atlético Pulpileño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Atlético Pulpileño 1–2 Lorca Deportiva

Lorca Deportiva beat Atlético Pulpileño 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on January 5, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio San Miguel in Pulpí.