Lorca Deportiva 2–1 Archena Sport: Result & Stats

Lorca Deportiva

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Archena Sport

11/6/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 11Estadio Francisco Artés Carrasco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Lorca Deportiva56%

×Draw24%

Archena Sport20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lorca DeportivaExpected goals in this matchArchena Sport

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

0.91

Lorca Deportiva

1.70

Archena Sport

0.91

Lorca Deportiva creates 87% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 17 away

2.11

creates per match

1.06

0.75

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Lorca Deportiva

2.11

Archena Sport

1.06

allows per match

Lorca Deportiva

0.75

Archena Sport

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lorca Deportiva+0.00on par

Archena Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lorca Deportiva ↓

Archena Sport →

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Lorca Deportiva or draw

80%

Lorca Deportiva or Archena Sport

76%

Draw or Archena Sport

44%

Winning margin

Lorca Deportiva wins by 2+

31%

Archena Sport wins by 2+

Team goals

Lorca Deportiva 1+ goals

82%

Lorca Deportiva 2+ goals

51%

Lorca Deportiva 3+ goals

24%

Archena Sport 1+ goals

60%

Archena Sport 2+ goals

23%

Archena Sport 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Lorca Deportiva (draw refunded)

74%

Archena Sport (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Lorca Deportiva at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.75 · 80 matches

Archena Sport away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Lorca Deportiva attack 2.11 + Archena Sport defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.70

Archena Sport attack 1.06 + Lorca Deportiva defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 56%?"

Lorca Deportiva scores more

56%

level

24%

Archena Sport scores more

20%

Lorca Deportiva at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Lorca Deportiva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lorca Deportiva vs Archena Sport

Lorca Deportiva beat Archena Sport 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on November 6, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Francisco Artés Carrasco in Lorca.

Lorca Deportiva vs Archena Sport — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Lorca Deportiva vs Archena Sport