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Archena Sport vs Lorca Deportiva — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Archena Sport
Archena Sport
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Lorca Deportiva
Lorca Deportiva
3/20/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 28Campo de fútbol Municipal Andrés Abenza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Archena Sport32%
×Draw24%
Lorca Deportiva44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Archena Sport
1.35
Lorca Deportiva
1.61

Lorca Deportiva creates 19% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 80 away

creates per match

Archena Sport
1.65
Lorca Deportiva
1.57

allows per match

Archena Sport
1.65
Lorca Deportiva
1.06

finishing

Archena Sport+0.00on par
Lorca Deportiva+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Archena Sport ↓

Lorca Deportiva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Archena Sport or draw
56%
Archena Sport or Lorca Deportiva
76%
Draw or Lorca Deportiva
68%

Winning margin

Archena Sport wins by 2+
14%
Lorca Deportiva wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Archena Sport 1+ goals
74%
Archena Sport 2+ goals
39%
Archena Sport 3+ goals
15%
Lorca Deportiva 1+ goals
80%
Lorca Deportiva 2+ goals
48%
Lorca Deportiva 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Archena Sport (draw refunded)
42%
Lorca Deportiva (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Archena Sport at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

Lorca Deportiva away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.06 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Archena Sport attack 1.65 + Lorca Deportiva defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.35

Lorca Deportiva attack 1.57 + Archena Sport defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Archena Sport scores more
32%
level
24%
Lorca Deportiva scores more
44%

Lorca Deportiva at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Lorca Deportiva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Archena Sport 1 – 0 Lorca Deportiva

Archena Sport beat Lorca Deportiva 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on March 20, 2022.

The match was played at Campo de fútbol Municipal Andrés Abenza in Archena.